Monday, October 25, 2010

Trading and stock markets predictions for next years. Where are stocks headed? A false rally?

Dow in 1929 stock market crash felt 52% (381 to 198) then recover to 77% of the initial value (294) all during the whole of 1930, after it, it crashed again to even lower values, in 1931-1935.

Dow in 2008 stock market meltdown felt 51% (13930 to 7062) and during the whole of 2009 it recovered now 70% of the initial value.
So, if history repeats the
Dow will still recover and soar until around 10700 somewhere before early 2010 after which they would crash again, to values well below 7000, in the years 2010-2014.

Either it rallies to 10700 by next spring crashing by the fall 2010 and then going always downwards, or it maybe goes down this fall, rallies next spring and goes downwards next summer. Whatever happens, it should rise around early-mid 2010 due to Jupiter-Uranus.

In late 1931, the Dow crashed into 116, and then to Dow 41 in mid 1932.
This would be the equivalent of Dow 4200 in early 2011, and Dow 1500 in mid 2011!

The worst years of the Great Depression were 1931, 1932 and 1933.
Dow recovers then to 194 by 1937, as slowly the Great depression comes gradually into to an end. Therefore, if history repeats (and it never repeats exactly!), the worst years are 2011, 2012 and 2013, the Second Great Depression, after which the economy recovers gradually around 2016 with Dow 7000.

Following the trend, unemployment will be very high with much social unrest in the next few years. The 2020s would be then a recovery to values around Dow 20000-30000, by 2030, and a whole new (probably green sustainable) economy. The Uranus/Neptune/Pluto aspects in 2029 reinforces this time of great expansion!

Now, we get into short-term astrology. In this fall, configurations are difficult, Saturn/Pluto in October-November does not look good, but the Jupiter/Neptune in December looks good.
In 2010 (May-December), Uranus enters Aries and conjuncted with Jupiter. This occurred also in 1927 when the market bubble expanded. This look very energetic, and perhaps positive. Perhaps the markets recover much again next year? Perhaps, like the housing and credit crunch, this is a new and bigger bubble bursting. In July-September 2010, the configuration seems very dramatic, bit Jupiter-Uranus looks expansive. However, in early 2011 Jupiter moves into Aries, as it was in 1929 or 1987.

I can say the bad word: 2010 may bring HYPERINFLATION or war followed by HUGE OIL PRICES. If so, then a crash happens afterwards by late 2010 or early 2011 just as we enter oficially into Great Depression II, in 2012-2014.

2010-2011 resembles 1931-1932, the years of the Great Depression, when Saturn, Uranus and Pluto created a T-square in cardinal signs. However, the order of the signs is different. Uranus is still in Aries, but Saturn is in Libra instead of Capricorn, and Pluto is in Capricorn instead of Cancer.

With Uranus is in Aries (such as 1760s, 1840s) the problem is not so much the economy as it is social unrest and great agitation. However, the economy can suffer greatly as the dramatic european famines in 1840s or the great depression in 1930s!
Saturn in Libra (1980, 1950, 1920, 1890, 1860) tends to bring the recovery of economy, a change of geopolitical landscape. Therefore, the following years will bring probably dramatic transformation and eventually a huge crises in resources, unemployment, food, environment, energy and money, identical to the Great Depression (2011-2015), but the economic system will later transform and even expand about one decade from now.

And now I say the good word. 2026-2030 brings strong economic and social prosperity and a big wave of revolution and technological advance.


Monday, October 4, 2010

Economic depression 2013-2020; Economic boom 2020-2030

Using waxing and waning cycles of outer planets to identify the cycles of the collective mood and the intensity of future events
The outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto) go through cycles forming between them conjunctions, waxing squares, oppositions, waning squares and conjunctions again. When a cycles is waxing, it induces a positive and constructive mood to the global collective, when the cycles is waning induces a more destructive and depressive economics. From history, periods with almost only waning cycles (around 1343, 1850, 1915, 1939) tends to correlate with massive destructive events such as plagues, economic depression, famines and world wars. Periods with abundance of waxing cycles (such as after the second world war or between 1990 and 2000) correlate with economic booms, building and expansion and collective optimism.


Millennium optimism shifts into a decade of major difficulties and challenges
(the economic recovery measures will not work, economic depression continues)
From the graph it is clear that since 2000 the cycles have been turning waning one after the other, and so this is causing an increasingly collective depressive mood. This will continue and a negative peak will occur by 2015-2017 and until 2024, so this might correlate with a rather difficult period for mankind. This might be a great economic depression, famine or war. It will be not as worse as the world wars or the black plague, but it will more challenging than the sixties, or the current global recession. In fact it might be a great depression, at a scale larger than the last one during the thirties, maybe because there will be other dramatic events like a large-scale war, a famine or a significant climate change.

After 2025 a great wave of social adjustments, economic optimism and technological advance
Afterwards, there will be about 20 years of mostly waxing cycles (2025-2045), bringing a long period of great optimism and economic expansion. This represents a shift in socio-political conditions at least as great as the American and French Revolutions, and a shift in technological advance as big as the industrial revolution! I can foresee, large scale social adjustments, and critical new technologies.

The rest of the century is somewhat so-so, with a smaller crises around 2045-2050, some growth around 2060s, followed by a severe difficult period around 2080 (even bigger than the one during next decade). A second wave of economic and technological expansion occurs during the last two decades of the century, with another crises and shifting point around 2100.

2010 is at the start of this major shifting period: there is no more stability for a big while
The last peak of global optimism (all outer planets in waxing, growing, cycles was in 2000). In 2001, Saturn-Pluto opposition turned the wheel into less global optimism, and this occurred further by 2005 and 2006, when Saturn-Neptune formed another opposition. In 2008, another opposition between Saturn-Uranus marked yet another shift into further negativism. In 2010 the cardinal climax marks another shift (Jupiter-Saturn opposition). All these cycles have turned into waning mode, meaning a destructive influence for the next following years. After growth, we need pruning the excesses, the unbalances and the mistakes.

Imagine that the period surrounding the early 2010s is like the period surrounding the early 1930s, the realization that there is a great turning point for the world, the social and economic unrest become more complicated, as well as political tensions mount between countries. This is because there is a major cardinal alignment, similar in both cases, and with identical waning cycles. The shift from several waxing cycles to waning cycles between 2008 and 2011 results in much more global worries, pessimism and deconstruction. To start of, that is a very intense shift. After the cardinal climax effect of 2010, the years 2011 and 2012 will likely be a period of much deeper change, something similar to the shift observed from 2008 to 2009. Probably, the economic crises and the climate unstability will become more extreme. Likely, the economic recovery measures will not work (because they are fundamentally flawed)

Economic depression becomes increasingly obvious between 2011 and 2016
During the years between 2011 and 2016 the unstable Uranus in Aries energies may bring widespread aggressive behavior, revolts, social unrest and an established economic depression, much like during the years between 1932 and 1938. This is in fact dangerous. And just like during the thirties (1935), after 2010, Saturn cycles become all waning, and this is a very negative influence.
More outer planets cycles turn waning by then, and Uranus transits late Aries: a very energetic and tensive period. The years 2013, 2014 and 2015 are key years, when events might spiral out of control (hopefully not). There might be massive changes in climate, economy, global and military affairs, and scientific inventions.

However now, despite wars, fears and power struggles, the socio-political revolution will be much more active and less destructive than during the thirties due to the fact that now Uranus-Pluto and Uranus-Neptune are in waxing cycles. Most likely the established sense of a "global world" will not change. The Internet will remain.

Between 2017 and 2024 a major event occurs (major war, famine, pandemic or revolution)
By 2017, like in 1939, the global pessimism hits the LOW with either a major scale war, pandemic, famine or revolution that lasts seven years between 2017-2024, this is because most outer planet cycles are in waning cycles. It might well be a smaller-scale world war, a small-scale nuclear war or a large regional that affects the world. In a positive way, this event will at least bring more positive social revolution, core values will change for the best, and continue to result in a global connected world. Even better, it will regenerate our stagnant societies and corrupted governments/corporations. And as the graph above shows, this change will be not as destructive as the second world war, but it will dwarf the sixties.

By 2025, a recovery starts, a new period of global optimism begins, with social revolution, economic expansion and technological advance
By 2020, there is a major development of that situation (like in early 1942, US entry in the war), and global optimism only comes by 2025 (like 1945), when major waxing cycles start again, and point to the end of this massive global change. It's also interesting because mid 2024 and 2025 have Jupiter, Uranus and Mars in Gemini, and Pluto is in Aquarius, all of which are very strong indicators of historical social revolutions (think about American or French revolutions). I also think about alien and technological disclosure as a major key event by then. Revolutions will be centered around 2025, give or take it 3 years. There will be likely economic booms, around the years 2020, 2025 and 2032.